Bristol is set to continue as one of the UK’s fastest-growing regional cities over the next four years as job creation in the country’s major urban areas gathers pace at the expense of smaller towns.
According to a new report by accountants EY, Bristol’s economy will grow by an average of 2% a year up to 2023 – faster than the UK average of 1.8%. 
That is behind only Manchester (2.2%) and Nottingham (2.1%) and higher than the South West’s rate of 1.5% a year between 2020 and 2023.
However, the growth rate of most major UK cities will be slower than over the previous four-year period, according to EY’s Regional Economic Forecast. Between 2016 and last year Bristol’s average annual economic expansion was 2.4%.
The fastest-growing sectors for employment in the city are expected to be Professional, Scientific & Technical and Administrative & Support Service sectors – with annual growth of 1%.
By contrast, the South West as a whole has experienced slower growth than Bristol over the past three years at 1.6% – marginally below the UK average of 1.8%. Looking ahead the region’s growth is expected to drop slightly to 1.5% until 2023, again below the average in England of 1.8%.
Over the next four years, employment growth for the South West is expected to stay at a modest rate of 0.5% – marginally less than the UK rate of 0.7%.
The sectors in the region which expect to see the biggest uplift in employment are Administrative & Support Services Activities and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation. In contrast, the Mining & Quarrying and Manufacturing sectors are forecast to see the biggest drop in employment.
The slower growth in the South West outside its largest city of Bristol is a picture repeated across the UK – with EY picking it up as the theme for its regional forecast. It shows that towns are set to fall further behind large cities.
EY South West managing partner Andrew Perkins said: “It’s fantastic to see Bristol will remain one of the fastest growing cities in the UK – it’s a testament to the thriving business community we have in the city.
“It could be easy to be disappointed by a small drop in forecasted growth for the region, but it’s clear the South West is still thriving.
“However, over the last two decades some coastal towns in the South West have struggled to grow at the same speed as the rest of the region. Whilst we can celebrate our standout locations for growth, its important initiatives designed to boost economic activity do not leave those locations behind if we are to share success equally across the region.”
The report shows how desperately this ‘levelling up’ is needed. In every region of the country the largest cities are forecast to grow faster than towns, increasing the already significant gaps in economic performance. London, the South East and the East of England will be the three fastest growing regions in England with forecast to grow between 2020-2023 by 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.6% respectively.
Towns in the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber will grow at 1.1% compared to growth of 1.7% in Newcastle and 1.9% in Leeds. The report gauges economic growth using the recognised gross value added (GVA) method, which measures the value of goods and services produced in an area.
