Airbus, which delivered its 7,000th airliner earlier this month, looks set to end 2011 with 1,600 orders pushing US rival Boeing to its lowest market share in 40 years.
The European planemaker, whose airliner wings are designed and part-built in Filton, is expected to sell more aircraft than Boeing for the nine successive year with a total not far short of 530 aircraft.
This year's lead is particularly pronounced because of demand for the revamped version of its 150-seat A320neo jetliner which will deliver fuel savings of 15%. Underlying Airbus orders are higher still at 1,609 including a previously announced 80-plane deal with Republic Airways that did not immediately enter the order book. That leaves 174 provisional A320neo orders still to be confirmed, many of which may trickle through in coming days judging by a pattern of chasing deadlines in previous years.
Boeing has landed 894 orders so far this year but fell behind its European rival as it hesitated over whether to match the A320neo or build a more ambitious new aircraft at the expense of near-term sales. It chose the first option by launching the 737 MAX."For nine months as Boeing hesitated, they left the A320neo almost alone on the market," Louis Gallois, chief executive of Airbus parent EADS, told analysts earlier this week.
The only doubt is whether Boeing will achieve a 40% market share in 2011, the lower end of a 40-60 band that many analysts regard as the framework for a stable duopoly. At present, it has a volume share of 37% and would need to sell more than 180 aircraft by the end of December to claw back a 40% share – and this is unlikely as Airbus is expected to close more deals.
However, Boeing has almost 800 provisional contracts for the 737 MAX waiting to be completed, including 462 for which the names of the buyers have not yet been disclosed. The bulk are expected to slip beyond the New Year giving the company a head start for what many analysts expect to be a bounce-back in 2012. The US planemaker has done better in value terms – thanks to its dominance of the wide-body market – after more than 200 orders for its 777. The wide-body airliner has benefited from the inability of Airbus to configure a suitably attractive offering of its new (and largest) version of the medium-sized long-range A350-1000, due to go into service in 2017.
Meanwhile the two companies are competing for a $16bn order for around 180 aircraft from United Airlines early next year, including possibly 130 of the latest generation of revamped A320neos or 737 MAX
